CV
Employment
Senior Economist, International Monetary Fund
Western Hemisphere Department (2022-present), Research Department (2013-2015, 2016-2022), European Department (2015-2016)
Education
University of Michigan, Ph.D., Economics, M.A., Economics
University of Pennsylvania, M.L.A., Certificate in Real Estate
1st in class, with highest honors
Tsinghua University, B.Arch
1st in class, with highest honors
Research Fields
Banking, corporate finance, and macro-financial linkages,
Editorial Positions
IMF Economic Review, Associate Editor, 2022-present
IMF Research Perspective, Guest Editor, 2020
Peer-Reviewed Publications
“Pricing Protest: The Response of Financial Markets to Social Unrest”, with Philip Barrett, Mariia Bondar, Mali Chivakul, and Deniz Igan, forthcoming, Review of Finance.
“Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown”, with Do Lee, Journal of Financial Economics, 2023.
“The Spread of Deposit Insurance and the Global Rise in Bank Asset Risk since the 1970s”, with Charles W. Calomiris, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2022. Winner of the 2022 Journal of Financial Intermediation Best Paper Award.
“Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in China: Evidence from a political economy based estimation”, with Lev Ratnovski and Pi-Han Tsai, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2021.
“The Dynamics of Non-Performing Loans during Banking Crises: A New Database with Post-COVID-19 Implications”, with Anil Ari and Lev Ratnovski, Journal of Banking and Finance, 2021.
“Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts”, with Romain Ranciere, International Journal of Forecasting, 35, pp 1160-1174, 2019.
“Does Balance Sheet Strength Drive Investment Cycle? Evidence from Pre- and Post-Crisis Cyprus”, with Yinqiu Lu, Cyprus Economic Policy Review, Volume 12, No. 1, pp 3-27, 2018 (lead article).
“The Tax-Adjusted Q Model with Intangible Assets: Theory and Evidence from Temporary Investment Tax Incentives”, with Estelle P. Dauchy, Southern Economic Journal, Volume 83, Issue 4, pp 972-992, 2017.
Publications in Books and Special Issues
“The Economics of Social Unrest”, with Philip Barrett, Finance and Development, August 2021.
“Social Repercussions of Pandemics”, with Philip Barrett, Covid Economics, Issue 68, 2021.
“COVID’s Long Shadow: Social Repercussions of Pandemics”, with Philip Barrett and Nan Li, IMF Research Perspective, Volume 23, Issue 2, Fall/Winter 2020.
“Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States”, with Deniz Igan, Nicola Pierri, and Andrea F Presbitero, Covid Economics, Issue 36, 2020.
“The Spread of Deposit Insurance and the Global Rise in Bank Asset Risk since the 1970s”, with Charles W. Calomiris, Research Briefs in Economic Policy, Number 114, January 2019.
Policy Publications
“Macroprudential Policy Effects: Evidence and Open Questions”, with Nina Biljanovska, R. Gaston Gelos, Deniz O Igan, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Erlend Nier, Fabian Valencia, IMF Departmental Paper, 2023/002.
“Rising Corporate Market Power: Emerging Policy Issues”, IMF Staff Discussion Notes, No. 21/01, March 15, 2021.
“Social Unrest during COVID-19”, with Philip Barrett, in World Economic Outlook, “Global Prospects and Policies” October 2020 Chapter 1.
“COVID-19 and non-performing loans: lessons from past crises”, with Anil Ari and Lev Ratnovski, ECB Research Bulletin, No. 72, June 19, 2020.
“Tracking the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies in Europe and the United States”, with Deniz Igan, Nicola Pierri, and Andrea F. Presbitero, IMF Special Series on COVID-19, May 7, 2020.
“Debt Maturity and the Use of Short-term Debt: Trends and Determinants”, with Paola Ganum, Lucy Liu, Leonardo Martinez and Sole Martinez Peria, IMF Departmental Paper No.19/03, 2019.
“International R&D Sourcing and Knowledge Spillovers”, in World Economic Outlook, “Is Productivity Growth Shared in a Globalized Economy?” April 2018 Chapter 4.
“A Toolkit to Assess the Consistency Between Real Sector and Financial Sector Forecasts”, with Paola Ganum and Pau Rabanal, IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 17/09.
“Monetary Policy in the New Normal”, IMF Staff Discussion Notes, No. 14/3, April 04, 2014.
Working Papers
“Harnessing Satellite Data to Improve Social Assistance Targeting in the Eastern Caribbean”, with Ryu Matsuura, Flavien Moreau, Joana Pereira, IMF Working Paper No. 24/084, 2024.
“The Dynamic Effects of Local Labor Market Shocks on Small Firms in The United States”, with Philip Barrett, Li Lin, Anke Weber, IMF Working Paper No. 24/063, 2024.
“Differential Effects of Macroprudential Policies”, with Nina Biljanovska, IMF Working Paper No. 23/043, 2023.
“Loan Screening in Growing Markets”, with Yangfan Sun. Under review.
“Social Repercussions of Pandemics”, with Philip Barrett, IMF Working Paper No. 21/21, 2021. Under review.
“Do Lenders Make Less-Informed Investments in High-Growth Housing Markets?”, with Lev Ratnovski, and Yangfan Sun, IMF Working Paper No. 21/151, 2021.
“International R&D Sourcing and Knowledge Spillovers: Evidence from OECD Countries”, with Estelle Dauchy, IMF Working Paper No. 18/51, 2018.
“Uncertainty and Investment: The Financial Intermediary Balance Sheet Channel”, IMF Working Paper No. 15/65, 2015.
“Financial Constraints, Intangible Assets, and Firm Dynamics: Theory and Evidence”, IMF Working Paper No. 14/88, 2014.
Work in Progress
“Government Credit and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Brazil”, with Leila Aghabarari, Deniz Igan, and Bernardus Van Doornik
“Paying Bankers: Rents, Risk, and Performance”, with Laura Castillo Martinez and Deniz Igan
“Sharing the Burden: Household-Level Evidence on Fiscal Consolidation in the European Union”, with Deniz Igan and Victoria Wenxin Xie
“Are Innovative Firms Financially Constrained? Evidence from R&D Tax Incentives in OECD Countries”, with Estelle Dauchy
“How Does Corporate Income Tax Affect Bank Lending and Capital Structure?”, with Gee Hee Hong
“The Role of Market Competition in Fiscal Policy Transmission”, with Yu Shi
Press and Media
“How Stock Markets Respond to Social Unrest”, IMF Blog, May 10, 2021.
“COVID’s Long Shadow: Social Repercussions of Pandemics”, IMF Blog, February 3, 2021.
"An Economy for All”, IMF Research Perspective, Volume 22, Issue 1, Spring/Summer 2020, guess editor. Platinum winner of the MUSE Award.
“Inclusion in Economics: Interview with Sole Martinez Peria”, in IMF Research Perspective, Volume 22, Issue 1, Spring/Summer 2020, guest edited by Sophia Chen.
“COVID-19 and Non-Performing Loans: Lessons from Past Crises”, VoxEU, May 30, 2020.
“The Economic Impact of Covid-19 in Europe and the US: Outbreaks and Individual Behaviour Matter a Great Deal, Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Matter Less”, VoxEU, May 11, 2020.
“Can Credit Still Prop Up the Chinese Economy?” VoxChina, Feb 28, 2018.
“Propping Up the Chinese Economy: Credit versus Fiscal Stimulus”, IMF Blog, December 12, 2017.
IMF Country Reports
IMF Article IV Staff Report
St. Kitts and Nevis: Staff Report for the 2023 Article IV Consultation
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Staff Report for the 2022 Article IV Consultation
IMF Selected Issues Paper
St. Kitts and Nevis: Labor Market Diagnosis and Policies
St. Kitts and Nevis: Climate Change Adaptation and Resilient Investment
IMF Staff Reports on Cyprus's economic adjustment program:
Cyprus: Fifth, Sixth, and Seventh Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility; Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion; and Rephasing of Access.
Cyprus: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus.
Cyprus: Ninth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus.
Invited Seminars and Conferences (including by coauthors)
2023: AEA, Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) Annual Meeting, IMF, RiskLab/Bank of Finland/European Systemic Risk Board Conference on Systemic Risk Analytics, Technical University of Munich
2022: AEA (x2), Bank for International Settlements, IMF Annual Macro-Financial Research Conference
2021: Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, Bank for International Settlements, Central Bank of Brazil, Econometric Society European Winter Meeting, Econometric Society Latin America Meeting, Executive Council on Diplomacy, Georgetown University, IMF Annual Macro-Financial Research Conference, National Tax Association Annual Conference, National Tsing Hua University, North American Meeting of the Urban Economics Association, University of Cambridge Money, Macro, and Finance Society Conference (x2), University of Essex (Essex Business School) (x2), University of Leicester (School of Business), United Nations, World Bank Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice, World Bank Treasury
2020: Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, ECB, IMF Annual Macro-Financial Research Conference, International Institute of Public Finance, NBER Summer Institute, Villanova University
2019: Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Econometric Society, Georgetown University, IMF Annual Macro-Financial Research Conference, International Institute of Public Finance (x2), Midwest Macroeconomics Conference, Sciences Po, Society of Economic Dynamics Annual Meeting, University of Michigan, Yale School of Management
2018: Academia Sinica, Bank of Spain, China International Risk Forum, City University of Hong Kong, ECB-FRB-HKMA China Expert Network Workshop, IMF Annual Macro-Financial Research Conference, IMF, New York University Shanghai, Tax Economist Forum, International Institute of Public Finance, Zhejiang University
2017: Federal Reserve Board, International Institute of Forecasters Workshop, Lund University, National Tax Association Annual Conference, University of Mannheim
2016: University of South Carolina (Darla Moore School of Business), Tax Economist Forum, National Tax Association Annual Conference
2015: Bank of England, International Banking, Economics, and Finance Association , IMF Research Seminar, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department Workshop on Fiscal Incentives for Innovation, International Institute of Public Finance, National Tax Association Annual Conference, Tax Economist Forum
2014 and prior: Bowdoin College, City University of London (Cass Business School), Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Board, International Institute of Public Finance (x2), Midwest Economic Theory and International Trade Conference, Midwest Finance Association, Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings, National Tax Association Annual Conference (x2), New Economic School (x2), Oxford University, Tax Economist Forum, University of California Santa Cruz, University of Hong Kong, University of Mannheim, University of Melbourne, University of Ottawa, University of Michigan
Teaching Experience
Graduate Student Instructor: University of Michigan
Introduction to Economic Research I and II (3rd year Ph.D.)
International Finance (Undergraduate)
Macroeconomic Theory I (1st year Ph.D.)
Macroeconomic Theory II (1st year Ph.D.)
Macroeconomic Preliminary Examination Tutor (1st year Ph.D.)
Teaching Assistant: University of Pennsylvania
Site Engineering (Master)
Water Management (Master)
Honors, Awards, and Grants
Journal of Financial Intermediation Best Paper Award
University of Michigan Rackham Graduate Student Research Grant
University of Michigan Rackham Travel Grant
Golden Widget Award for the Best Graduate Student Instructor for a Graduate Class
University of Michigan Department of Economics Teaching Award
University of Michigan Rackham International Student Fellowship
Highest Distinction in Microeconomic Preliminary Examination
University of Pennsylvania Ian L. McHarg Prize (highest departmental graduation honor)
American Society of Landscape Architect (ASLA) Student Award nomination
University of Pennsylvania Chair’s Merit Scholarship for Academic Excellence
University of Pennsylvania Chair’s Merit Fellowship, 2005-2007
Tsinghua University Best Graduate Award (highest graduation honor)
Best Collegiate Graduate of Beijing
President Jiang Nanxiang Fellowship
First place, Academic Excellence Scholarship (three times)
Outstanding Student of Beijing
Services
Referee for China Economic Review, IMF Economic Review, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Forecasting, International Review of Economics and Finance, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Financial Intermediation, Journal of International Money and Finance, National Tax Journal, Review of Financial Economics, Review of Financial Studies
Organizing committee on the IMF Research Seminar and IMF Annual Macro-Financial Research Conference
Member of the IMF Diversity Reference Group
Ph.D. admission committee, University of Michigan